Civil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event.
- kuudes estimated 1% on 2016-11-27
- kuudes said “related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180405 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-level_NUTS_of_the_European_Union” on 2016-11-27
- two2thehead said “The only criticism I’d make is in differentiating civil war per se and terrorism done in the name of $POLITICALGOAL of the insurrectionists. Think ISIS/ISIL/Daesh claiming responsibility for the 2015 Nov Paris attacks.” on 2016-11-27
- two2thehead said “I suppose “kill >= 100 armed persons” could be a differentiator.” on 2016-11-27
- two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-11-27
- themusicgod1 estimated 18% on 2016-11-28
- kuudes judged this prediction wrong on 2017-04-01.
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