Civil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event.

Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.

• kuudes estimated 1% on 2016-11-27
• kuudes said “related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180405 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-level_NUTS_of_the_European_Union” on 2016-11-27
• two2thehead said “The only criticism I’d make is in differentiating civil war per se and terrorism done in the name of $POLITICALGOAL of the insurrectionists. Think ISIS/ISIL/Daesh claiming responsibility for the 2015 Nov Paris attacks.” on 2016-11-27
• two2thehead said “I suppose “kill >= 100 armed persons” could be a differentiator.” on 2016-11-27
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-11-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 18% on 2016-11-28
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-04-01.