At some point on or before January 1, 2017, http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be among the five most viewed blog posts on the Effective Altruism Forum.

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-30.

• Vipul Naik estimated 70% on 2016-12-14
• Vipul Naik estimated 75% and said “Gap of 77 against current #55, gap is closing at a rate of between 15 and 25 per day, 12.5 days remain” on 2016-12-18
• Vipul Naik said “*#5” on 2016-12-18
• Vipul Naik estimated 50% and said “Gap with current #5 appears to not be closing, but gap is only 30 (or < 1%). Currently a toss-up dependent on too many other factors.” on 2016-12-24
• Vipul Naik estimated 57% and said “Gap down to 22 now, 7 days to go” on 2016-12-25
• Vipul Naik estimated 48% and said “Gap seems steady at 22. WMF fundraising messages have gone down, so traffic to post has also gone down.” on 2016-12-27
• Vipul Naik estimated 61% and said “Gap of only 13 now, with 4 more days to go.” on 2016-12-28
• Vipul Naik said “Currently at #5” on 2016-12-30
• Vipul Naik   judged this prediction right on 2016-12-30.