At some point on or before January 1, 2017, http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be among the five most viewed blog posts on the Effective Altruism Forum.

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-30.

  • Vipul Naik estimated 70% on 2016-12-14
  • Vipul Naik estimated 75% and said “Gap of 77 against current #55, gap is closing at a rate of between 15 and 25 per day, 12.5 days remainon 2016-12-18
  • Vipul Naik said “*#5on 2016-12-18
  • Vipul Naik estimated 50% and said “Gap with current #5 appears to not be closing, but gap is only 30 (or < 1%). Currently a toss-up dependent on too many other factors.on 2016-12-24
  • Vipul Naik estimated 57% and said “Gap down to 22 now, 7 days to goon 2016-12-25
  • Vipul Naik estimated 48% and said “Gap seems steady at 22. WMF fundraising messages have gone down, so traffic to post has also gone down.on 2016-12-27
  • Vipul Naik estimated 61% and said “Gap of only 13 now, with 4 more days to go.on 2016-12-28
  • Vipul Naik said “Currently at #5on 2016-12-30
  • Vipul Naik  judged this prediction right on 2016-12-30.

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