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http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be the most viewed blog post on the Effective Altruism Forum for December 2016 according to Google Analytics.

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-31.

  • Vipul Naik estimated 55% on 2016-12-14
  • Vipul Naik estimated 62% and said “Upping estimate since no other candidate has emerged for the current 31-day moving window” on 2016-12-18
  • Vipul Naik estimated 65% and said “Although it seems the highest-traffic of ones published so far, there is some chance of a new article that gets a lot of publicity. Among existing articles I’d give it 80% chance.” on 2016-12-27
  • Vipul Naik estimated 68% and said “Continued increase in confidence based on lack of contenders so far” on 2016-12-28
  • Vipul Naik estimated 78% and said “Very little time is left now for a new post to achieve massive success, enough to overtake this one.” on 2016-12-29
  • Vipul Naik estimated 90% and said “Pretty confident now that we are part-way through December 30 and it’s leading by 200+ views.” on 2016-12-30
  • Vipul Naik   judged this prediction right on 2016-12-31.