The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency

Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.

  • sjy estimated 70% on 2016-12-26
  • sjy said “Paul Krugman says that ‘the best bet is that the trade war is coming.’ 2016-12-26
  • themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-12-27
  • mortehu said “For the purposes of this prediction, is “new protectionist tariff” in any way different from “new or increased tariff”?on 2016-12-31
  • themusicgod1 said “Yeah it is. There are tariffs that are not protectionist.on 2016-12-31
  • EloiseRosen estimated 75% on 2016-12-31
  • Dapple estimated 65% on 2017-01-02
  • Temeraire said “This excludes border adjustment tax, right?on 2017-01-05
  • sjy said “Let’s define protectionism as the policy of restraining trade to protect domestic businesses and workers from foreign competitors, and tariff as a tax on imported goods.on 2017-01-08
  • sjy said “The current Republican border adjustment proposal isn’t a tariff and, according to the Economist, ‘in theory, border adjustments do not affect trade.’ So (in theory) it’s not protectionist either.on 2017-01-08
  • Dapple estimated 20% and said “Hmmm… Well, I gotta say that an approach like this was unanticipated and I gotta update heavily now. It gives Trump a safe out on keeping his promise without implementing a tariff.on 2017-03-27
  • themusicgod1 estimated 49% and said “This is still mostly about semantics imho.on 2017-03-27
  • sjy   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-22.
  • sjy said “Off by two days: 2018-01-22

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