The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency

Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.

• sjy estimated 70% on 2016-12-26
• sjy said “Paul Krugman says that ‘the best bet is that the trade war is coming.’ http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/26/opinion/and-the-trade-war-came.html” on 2016-12-26
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-12-27
• mortehu said “For the purposes of this prediction, is “new protectionist tariff” in any way different from “new or increased tariff”?” on 2016-12-31
• themusicgod1 said “Yeah it is. There are tariffs that are not protectionist.” on 2016-12-31
• EloiseRosen estimated 75% on 2016-12-31
• Dapple estimated 65% on 2017-01-02
• Temeraire said “This excludes border adjustment tax, right?” on 2017-01-05
• sjy said “Let’s define protectionism as the policy of restraining trade to protect domestic businesses and workers from foreign competitors, and tariff as a tax on imported goods.” on 2017-01-08
• sjy said “The current Republican border adjustment proposal isn’t a tariff and, according to the Economist, ‘in theory, border adjustments do not affect trade.’ So (in theory) it’s not protectionist either.” on 2017-01-08
• Dapple estimated 20% and said “Hmmm… Well, I gotta say that an approach like this was unanticipated and I gotta update heavily now. It gives Trump a safe out on keeping his promise without implementing a tariff.” on 2017-03-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% and said “This is still mostly about semantics imho.” on 2017-03-27
• sjy   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-22.
• sjy said “Off by two days: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/22/business/trump-tariffs-washing-machines-solar-panels.html” on 2018-01-22