I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19.

• davidmanheim estimated 40% on 2017-01-03
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-01-03
• davidmanheim said “I’m interested in the basis for which other people are estimating the probability of this event…” on 2017-01-03
• EloiseRosen estimated 35% on 2017-01-04
• EloiseRosen said “the basis for mine is that people tend to be over-optimistic about the timelines for their own projects, so I took whatever your probability was and decreased it by a bit” on 2017-01-04
• EloiseRosen said “people who give a number >40 are probably reasoning that they know less about the situation than you do and therefore should guess something between your probability and 50” on 2017-01-04
• playablecharacter estimated 20% on 2017-01-05
• playablecharacter   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-05-19.
• themusicgod1 said “similar reasoning to EloiseRosen. Dissertations are the sort of thing that either you know you’ve got it in the bag or it’s up in the air with little middleground. Your underconfidence told me it was the latter, but with low confidence.” on 2017-05-20