Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.

• davidmanheim estimated 50% on 2017-01-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2017-01-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-01-10
• splorridge estimated 53% on 2017-01-10
• two2thehead said “Posting here to remind myself to predict later.” on 2017-01-10
• two2thehead estimated 51% and said “Let’s be very conservative.” on 2017-01-16
• pent estimated 80% on 2017-04-23
• pent estimated 20% and said “whoops missed the not” on 2017-04-23
• pent estimated 89% on 2017-04-24
• two2thehead estimated 55% on 2017-04-25
• danielfilan estimated 90% on 2017-04-25
• pent estimated 79% and said “hack changes chances” on 2017-05-06
• splorridge estimated 99% on 2017-05-07
• two2thehead   judged this prediction right on 2017-05-07.