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Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.

  • davidmanheim estimated 80% on 2017-01-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 49% and said “all depends if they can engage the billion people who are just getting online now. might need internationalizing languageon 2017-01-10
  • lukas11 estimated 60% on 2017-01-12
  • WilliamBerkeley estimated 75% on 2017-01-13
  • daccount10 estimated 80% on 2017-01-14
  • davidmanheim   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-08-30.