Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections.
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
- Ben Doherty estimated 12% on 2017-01-14
- themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2017-01-14
- splorridge said “I find it mildly amusing that if we compare this prediction to your other one: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180882, it looks like the collective wisdom of predictionbook says that Zuckerberg has a ~91% chance of winning if he runs.” on 2017-01-16
- splorridge estimated 1% on 2017-01-16
- penten said “@splorridge at least for Ben Doherty and themusicgod1 who predicted both, they put it at about half the chance of him running, which in a roughly two party state, does make some sense as an initial prediction” on 2017-01-16
- splorridge said “P(winning) = P(running) * P(winning party nomination given running) * P(winning election given nomination)” on 2017-01-18
- splorridge said “If we assume that P(winning election given nomination) is approximately 0.5 (due to two party system) then for your logic to make sense we’d have to have P(winning party nomination given running) approximately equal to 1, which is far too large.” on 2017-01-18
- mortehu estimated 1% on 2017-01-21
- Baeboo estimated 2% on 2017-12-14
- arrowinthedark estimated 0% on 2020-08-10
- arrowinthedark judged this prediction wrong on 2020-08-29.
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