Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-20; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

• JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2017-01-20
• JoshuaZ said “Terms are negation of following list: 1) Trump will be president on January 19th 2021 OR have left office due for legit medical reasons (such as death)” on 2017-01-20
• JoshuaZ said “2) The US will NOT get into a conflict with China such that 10 nationals die on each side, at least half of which are government employees (such as soldiers)3) Midterm elections will be held in 2018 as scheduled” on 2017-01-20
• JoshuaZ said “4) Presidential and national elections will be held on 2020” on 2017-01-20
• JoshuaZ said “Note: Bet with Andrew R on this. ” on 2017-01-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 73% on 2017-01-20
• ioannes estimated 8% and said “Why not make three separate predictions? It’s harder to think about unions of events.” on 2017-01-20
• ioannes said “lol 73% is very confident” on 2017-01-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-01-21
• JoshuaZ said “Note that deadline is apparently wrong since comment makes clear this is supposed to go Jan 19 2021. Adjusting accordingly. ” on 2020-01-21
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-21” on 2020-01-21
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-22.