Politics – More than 10,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January

Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-24

  • jbeshir estimated 80% on 2017-01-21
  • two2thehead estimated 65% and said “Five percent hedge upwards from sixty percent.on 2017-01-22
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2017-01-22
  • daccount10 estimated 30% on 2017-01-22
  • themusicgod1 estimated 75% on 2017-01-22
  • ioannes estimated 65% on 2017-01-22
  • ioannes said “How are we assessing this? In retrospect it seems challenging to evaluate bc I can’t find a size estimate of Monday crowds on google.on 2017-01-25
  • jbeshir said “Also having trouble finding an estimate yet. It is tricky.on 2017-01-25
  • ioannes said “Okay. If you can’t find an estimate, can you withdraw the prediction?on 2017-01-27
  • jbeshir said “My inclination is to sit on it for up to a month or so, to see if any subsequent analysis comes out, and then if I still can’t find any data to withdraw. If that’s too annoying I can withdraw now, though.on 2017-01-29
  • ioannes said “I’d prefer that you withdraw because the main way we learn about crowd sizes is news coverage & there won’t be any new coverage a month from now. on 2017-02-05
  • jbeshir withdrew the prediction on 2017-02-18

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