North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile before the end of 2017

Created by two2thehead on 2017-01-22; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.

  • two2thehead estimated 80% on 2017-01-22
  • two2thehead said “I’m trying to get better at “time limited” predictions shorter than one year. This isn’t technically one of them because there are rumors of a test in the works. But I figure, baby steps.on 2017-01-22
  • two2thehead said “See this as an example of a failed prediction. I was wrong, but it was a great test because it was a learning experience. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180099 on 2017-01-22
  • jbeshir estimated 85% on 2017-01-22
  • themusicgod1 estimated 55% on 2017-01-22
  • ioannes said “Is this ICBM only or any range of ballistic missile? Also, nuclear-only or any type of ballistic missile?on 2017-01-22
  • themusicgod1 said “I’m assuming non-nuclear tipped. NK has history of putting non-nuke missiles in the sea.on 2017-01-22
  • two2thehead said “Any range ballistic missile. This allows both Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (similar to MIRVs) and Tactical Ballistic Missiles (similar to the SCUD).on 2017-01-22
  • two2thehead said “As themusicgod1 said non-nuclear is assumed. Although if a nuclear warhead is on board, this is marked as correct. The true false criterion depends on the ballistic missile firing and not the explosion, if any.on 2017-01-22
  • two2thehead said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missileon 2017-01-22
  • two2thehead said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_ballistic_missileon 2017-01-22
  • rmeador estimated 60% on 2017-01-31
  • tsssssskl estimated 10% on 2017-02-02
  • two2thehead said ““North Korea has fired a ballistic missile, South Korea’s military says, the first such test since Donald Trump took office as US president.”on 2017-02-12
  • two2thehead said “ Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38947451on 2017-02-12
  • two2thehead  judged this prediction right on 2017-02-12.

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction