Mexico will pay for (at least 50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall.

Created by regex on 2017-01-22; known on 2023-01-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.

• regex estimated 90% on 2017-01-22
• regex changed the deadline from “on 2019-01-22” and changed their prediction from “Mexico will pay for (at least >50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall.” on 2017-01-22
• Temeraire said “Seems potentially hard to judge. What happens if e.g. Mexico pays the US a load of money that the press release is for the wall, but simultaneously get a quid-pro-quo elsewhere? Is it all about the press release?” on 2017-01-22
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% and said “@temeraire. I’d suggest that that would count. Trump has never said that he wouldn’t give a carrot to get them to pay for it” on 2017-01-22
• regex said “A clear judgement here would be Trump saying that they paid for the wall, and no one contradicting that claim. Becomes harder to judge if there are conflicting narratives or backroom deals.” on 2017-01-25
• regex changed the deadline from “on 2019-01-22” on 2017-06-11
• regex said “So to be clearer what I expect is something like 1) Mexican president directly making some deal 2) Trump saying the money we’re no longer losing to illegal immigration/violence is how they pay 3) some asymmetric gain on the USA’s side equal to wall” on 2017-06-11
• regex said “I would also expect that Trump’s detractors will call it a broken promise regardless of what happens. I would expect them to start hypothesizing backroom deals or the like,” on 2017-06-11
• regex said “Note this is not strictly contingent on Trump saying it is paid for, but rather there being a significant enough reason to believe that it has actually occurred, which I would expect to be unclear regardless of actual outcome. Hard to arbitrate.” on 2017-06-11
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-29.