China probe lands on far side of the moon, returns samples
- themusicgod1 estimated 71% on 2017-01-23
- themusicgod1 changed the deadline from “on 2018-12-31” and changed their prediction from “China lands on far side of the moon, returns samples” on 2017-01-23
- atomicspacemann estimated 33% and said “Sample return is much, much harder than a landing, with for more potential failure events than any mission China has succeeded at. I would judge your level of probability (77%) that they will at least test hardware for this mission, but not succeed.” on 2017-01-23
- Bruno Parga said “Chang’e 4 is orbiting the Moon but hasn’t landed yet.” on 2019-01-01
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.
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