China probe lands on far side of the moon, returns samples

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• themusicgod1 estimated 71% on 2017-01-23
• themusicgod1 changed the deadline from “on 2018-12-31” and changed their prediction from “China lands on far side of the moon, returns samples” on 2017-01-23
• atomicspacemann estimated 33% and said “Sample return is much, much harder than a landing, with for more potential failure events than any mission China has succeeded at. I would judge your level of probability (77%) that they will at least test hardware for this mission, but not succeed.” on 2017-01-23
• Bruno Parga said “Chang’e 4 is orbiting the Moon but hasn’t landed yet.” on 2019-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.