EMDrive thrust will not be positively replicated by a reliable independent party, like Tau Zero. (Not Shawyer, White, Fetti.)

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.

• technicalities estimated 80% on 2017-01-23
• themusicgod1 estimated 86% on 2017-01-24
• atomicspaceman estimated 50% and said “I think it makes sense to provide a comparison to previous results (ie. will perform < 10% the thrust of existing tests) and/or discuss conditions. I’m only interested in tests conducted in space, for example.” on 2017-01-30
• technicalities estimated 80% and said “Good point. “Reported thrust of all reputable 2017 trials will remain within measurement error, ~0-2 mN / kW.” Not conditional of being in space.” on 2017-01-30
• themusicgod1 said “https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/1.B36120 ?” on 2017-04-30
• technicalities said “I think that paper is reporting the 2016 Eagleworks results under the print publication date (“published online by Jnl. Prop. & Power November 17, 2016”). My prediction is dated forwards from that.” on 2018-01-03
• technicalities   judged this prediction right on 2018-01-03.
• technicalities said “Negative Tau Zero report on White et al:https://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=36890” on 2018-01-03