Trump will launch at least one significant war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths before US midterm elections. (deaths can include post midterms; we'll just have to judge if any small wars seem likely to go over threshold)

Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.

• Temeraire estimated 15% on 2017-01-28
• Temeraire said “https://medium.com/@RobinMcGhee/predictions-for-the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-67b07f4c6a0b#” on 2017-01-28
• playablecharacter estimated 3% on 2017-01-28
• Temeraire estimated 12% on 2018-01-09
• playablecharacter   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.