Trump will launch at least one significant war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths before US midterm elections. (deaths can include post midterms; we'll just have to judge if any small wars seem likely to go over threshold)
- Temeraire estimated 15% on 2017-01-28
- Temeraire said “https://medium.com/@RobinMcGhee/predictions-for-the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-67b07f4c6a0b#” on 2017-01-28
- playablecharacter estimated 3% on 2017-01-28
- Temeraire estimated 12% on 2018-01-09
- playablecharacter judged this prediction wrong 17 days ago.
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