ACA repealed before US midterm elections and 2019 number of people without healthcare insurance > 15m higher than 2016

Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.

• Temeraire estimated 9% on 2017-01-28
• Temeraire said “https://medium.com/@RobinMcGhee/predictions-for-the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-67b07f4c6a0b#” on 2017-01-28
• Temeraire said “~80% chance of ACA repeal, small chance of return to pre-ACA uninsured rates, including some chance if ACA not repealed. Note that medicare, socialised medicine etc. count as insured here.” on 2017-01-28
• davidmanheim estimated 25% and said “CBO Projections say 14m likely.” on 2017-03-14
• Temeraire estimated 5% on 2018-01-09
• arrowinthedark   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-08-12.