Trump Approval >50% by nov 1, 2020

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-05; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.

• themusicgod1 estimated 29% on 2017-02-05
• ioannes said “Why the long timeline? Why not assess in six months, or a year?(I don’t like long timelines because I’m making predictions to test my calibration, and 4-year time horizon is less juicy than a 6-month time horizon)” on 2017-02-05
• themusicgod1 said “trying to operationalize https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/?utm_source=fbb ” on 2017-02-07
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-07.