The total number of United States F-1 visas issued in mainland China in Fiscal Year 2016 will be less than in Fiscal Year 2015.

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-23; known on 2018-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-04.

• Vipul Naik estimated 62% on 2017-02-23
• Vipul Naik said “See http://lawandborder.com/u-s-china-reach-agreement-longer-business-tourist-student-visa-validity/ and https://web.archive.org/web/20161222232858/http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/11/233904.htm” on 2017-02-23
• Vipul Naik said “And see explanation at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F_visa#F-1_visas_by_country_for_major_countries — since longer validity multi-entry visas start being issued in FY15, need for renewal reduces in FY16” on 2017-02-23
• Vipul Naik changed the deadline from “on 2018-03-02” and changed their prediction from “The total number of F-1 visas issued in mainland China in Fiscal Year 2016 will be less than in Fiscal Year 2015.” on 2017-02-23
• Vipul Naik said “I’ll judge this right, even though I don’t have explicitly measured data for China FY 2016 issues.” on 2018-03-04
• Vipul Naik said “https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableXVIB.pdf gives 2017 number of 116,019; 2015 number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F_visa#F-1_visas_by_country_for_major_countries of 274,460” on 2018-03-04
• Vipul Naik said “Per https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableXVIB.pdf total F-1 dropped from 644,233 in 2015 to 471,128 in 2016” on 2018-03-04
• Vipul Naik   judged this prediction right on 2018-03-04.

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