SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018.

Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• trishume estimated 65% on 2017-02-28
• splorridge estimated 60% on 2017-02-28
• penten estimated 40% on 2017-02-28
• ioannes estimated 25% on 2017-02-28
• Faceh estimated 15% and said “Not much is known about the deal, and these sorts of projects can go wrong in an instant over the next year or so. Can’t express much confidence that far out until more details are revealed/we get closer to actual launch. Its too unprecedented.” on 2017-03-02
• tedks estimated 20% on 2017-03-10
• Athrithalix estimated 1% on 2018-02-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Lack of human-rating Falcon Heavy makes this unlikely” on 2018-02-24
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.