This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic

Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-24.

  • Alti Camelus estimated 22% on 2017-03-13
  • Dapple estimated 4% on 2017-03-14
  • penten estimated 5% on 2017-03-15
  • themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-03-18
  • plantony estimated 10% on 2017-03-31
  • themusicgod1 said “Isn’t the current one kind of logarithmic?on 2017-06-09
  • Alti Camelus said “I don’t think so. See https://github.com/tricycle/predictionbook/issues/3on 2017-06-20
  • Alti Camelus said “They’ve added Brier scoring to user pages, which is a proper scoring rule. I don’t know if this counts as a “switch”, since they have kept the old scoring rule. Anybody want to weigh in?on 2017-08-15
  • Alti Camelus said “Brier scoring is not logarithmic, according to my quick scan of the WP articleon 2017-08-15
  • Dapple  judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-24.

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