North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 14 days [2017-04-09]

Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-23.

• two2thehead estimated 65% on 2017-04-09
• jbeshir estimated 15% and said “Dubious the regime is competent and equip well enough to pull it together in ~19 days from the initial prompt last week if they wanted to.” on 2017-04-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 41% on 2017-04-10
• two2thehead estimated 58% on 2017-04-17
• two2thehead estimated 55% on 2017-04-18
• two2thehead estimated 54% on 2017-04-19
• two2thehead estimated 53% on 2017-04-20
• two2thehead estimated 50% on 2017-04-22
• two2thehead estimated 49% on 2017-04-23
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-04-23.