The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017.

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2017-04-11
• playablecharacter estimated 5% on 2017-04-12
• playablecharacter said “(not a serious prediction for me)” on 2017-04-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-04-12
• ioannes estimated 3% on 2017-04-12
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 7% on 2017-04-13
• tedks estimated 1% on 2017-04-14
• two2thehead estimated 40% and said “Being conservative.” on 2017-04-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% and said “Downgrading probability by 5%.” on 2017-04-14
• ioannes said “How is “major” war defined? This is underspecified ” on 2017-04-14
• ioannes said “I like mine better: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/181953” on 2017-04-14
• danielfilan estimated 15% on 2017-04-15
• danielfilan estimated 3% on 2017-04-15
• Venryx estimated 3% on 2017-04-16
• danielfilan estimated 1% on 2017-04-16
• two2thehead estimated 10% on 2017-04-17
• Mike estimated 10% on 2017-04-17
• custom estimated 5% on 2017-04-17
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2017-04-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% and said “Carrier stuff seems to have been over-hyped, most immediate tensions cooling. Possibility of a one-off strike still remains.” on 2017-04-18
• iam@kylesamani.com estimated 5% on 2017-04-18
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% and said “Seems pretty unlikely unless your definition of “major war” is extremely flexible.” on 2017-04-21
• jeetaylor estimated 1% on 2017-04-24
• jeetaylor estimated 1% on 2017-04-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2017-04-30
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-05-01.