Conservatives will win the general election.

Created by neilscott on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by neilscott on 2018-01-29.

• neilscott estimated 95% on 2017-05-01
• neilscott changed the deadline from “on 2017-06-08” and made the prediction on 2017-05-23
• ikmacbeth estimated 35% on 2017-05-23
• lauragonzalez estimated 70% on 2017-05-23
• themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2017-05-23
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2017-06-06
• fiftytwo estimated 70% and said “Trying to ignore the recent polls and look at teh fundamentals. Also Theresa May probably had better data than any of us and expected to win, ” on 2017-06-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 51% and said “only thing that can stop now is a coalition on the left being more stable” on 2017-06-09
• technicalities   judged this prediction right on 2017-06-09.
• technicalities said “Well, they lost it the least” on 2017-06-09
• PlacidPlatypus said “This one should have been more clearly specified I think.” on 2017-06-09
• fiftytwo   judged this prediction unknown on 2017-06-10.
• fiftytwo said “I was interpretting won as “having a majority” since I bet on the hung parliament question ” on 2017-06-10
• PlacidPlatypus said “IMO anyone who put a number on that without clearly specifying what they thought it meant deserves to have it marked wrong :P” on 2017-06-10
• themusicgod1 said “Majority is too strict. Westminster-style parliaments have minorities and coalitions all the time, it’s a regular win condition.” on 2017-06-10
• neilscott   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-29.