Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty.

Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.

  • SeriousPod estimated 90% on 2017-05-17
  • themusicgod1 estimated 74% on 2017-05-18
  • Bismagician estimated 98% and said “He will finish. He won the primary and the presidency despite everyone’s effects. He’ll escape impeachment in the same way. I’d love to be wrong, but I’m pretty sure he’s here to stay. on 2017-05-18
  • aseyfarth estimated 60% on 2017-05-19
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 82% on 2017-08-22
  • Baeboo estimated 47% on 2017-08-23
  • Baeboo estimated 48% on 2017-09-17
  • Baeboo estimated 49% on 2017-09-25
  • Baeboo estimated 50% on 2017-09-29
  • Baeboo estimated 51% on 2017-10-09
  • Michael Dickens estimated 77% and said “9/57 presidential terms went unfinished which gives a prior of 84%, I’ll go a bit lower on Trump because he’s older than average and also crazyon 2017-10-28
  • Baeboo estimated 50% on 2017-11-22
  • Baeboo estimated 46% on 2017-12-02
  • Baeboo estimated 53% on 2018-01-02
  • Baeboo estimated 62% on 2018-02-07
  • Bruno Parga said “Wrong end date.on 2020-01-02
  • Bruno Parga estimated 90% on 2020-01-02
  • Baeboo estimated 90% on 2020-01-02
  • Andrew MacFie said “Wrong end dateon 2020-02-26
  • EnergyParade estimated 95% on 2020-02-26
  • Baeboo estimated 94% on 2020-02-27
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “He didn’t finish his term by the specified date :) What do you guys think, should I mark this as false? on 2020-04-21
  • Cato said “Charitable interpretation: SeriousPod meant 2021-01-20, which is the first day after the term ends. The prediction doesn’t make sense otherwise (though it’s weird no one pointed it out earlier).on 2020-04-23
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “He didn’t complete his first term by the deadline. Therefore, according to common sense, your prediction is false. on 2020-07-14
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-07-14.
  • wizzwizz4   judged this prediction unknown on 2020-07-15.
  • wizzwizz4 said “People have been predicting as though the end date was right. It’s not fair to mark it as wrong, however technically correct that would be.on 2020-07-15
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction unknown on 2020-07-15.

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