Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty.
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
- SeriousPod estimated 90% on 2017-05-17
- themusicgod1 estimated 74% on 2017-05-18
- Bismagician estimated 98% and said “He will finish. He won the primary and the presidency despite everyone’s effects. He’ll escape impeachment in the same way. I’d love to be wrong, but I’m pretty sure he’s here to stay. ” on 2017-05-18
- aseyfarth estimated 60% on 2017-05-19
- Pablo estimated 82% on 2017-08-22
- Baeboo estimated 47% on 2017-08-23
- Baeboo estimated 48% on 2017-09-17
- Baeboo estimated 49% on 2017-09-25
- Baeboo estimated 50% on 2017-09-29
- Baeboo estimated 51% on 2017-10-09
- Michael Dickens estimated 77% and said “9/57 presidential terms went unfinished which gives a prior of 84%, I’ll go a bit lower on Trump because he’s older than average and also crazy” on 2017-10-28
- Baeboo estimated 50% on 2017-11-22
- Baeboo estimated 46% on 2017-12-02
- Baeboo estimated 53% on 2018-01-02
- Baeboo estimated 62% on 2018-02-07
- Bruno Parga said “Wrong end date.” on 2020-01-02
- Bruno Parga estimated 90% on 2020-01-02
- Baeboo estimated 90% on 2020-01-02
- Andrew MacFie said “Wrong end date” on 2020-02-26
- EnergyParade estimated 95% on 2020-02-26
- Baeboo estimated 94% on 2020-02-27
- PseudonymousUser said “He didn’t finish his term by the specified date :) What do you guys think, should I mark this as false? ” on 2020-04-21
- Cato said “Charitable interpretation: SeriousPod meant 2021-01-20, which is the first day after the term ends. The prediction doesn’t make sense otherwise (though it’s weird no one pointed it out earlier).” on 2020-04-23
- PseudonymousUser said “He didn’t complete his first term by the deadline. Therefore, according to common sense, your prediction is false. ” on 2020-07-14
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2020-07-14.
- wizzwizz4 judged this prediction unknown on 2020-07-15.
- wizzwizz4 said “People have been predicting as though the end date was right. It’s not fair to mark it as wrong, however technically correct that would be.” on 2020-07-15
- PlacidPlatypus judged this prediction unknown on 2020-07-15.
- SeriousPod judged this prediction right on 2020-11-25.
- SeriousPod judged this prediction right on 2020-11-25.
- SeriousPod said “This prediction is correct. Messed up the original date, though.” on 2020-11-25
- SeriousPod said “It would be quite silly and uncharitable to interpret my prediction in a way that was physically not possible. Why would I bother making a physically impossible prediction?” on 2020-11-25
- SeriousPod changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-01” on 2020-11-25
- Bruno Parga said “SeriousPod, while I understand where you’re coming from, I think you judged this too early. Trump’s term is not over, it ends at the revised end date. (This is not about the previous end date of 2020-01-01; it’s that he might still die in office.) ” on 2020-12-09