One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-06-12; known on 2027-06-12; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-17.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2017-06-12
  • JoshuaZ said “Astronauts are the 12 listed here. 2017-06-12
  • JoshuaZ said “In case article dies or confusion otherwise names are: Kayla Barron, Zena Cardman, Raja Chari, Matthew Dominick, Bob Hines, Warren Hoburg, Jonny Kim, Robb Kulin, Jasmin Mogbeli, Loral O’Hara, Francisco Rubio, Jessica Watkinson 2017-06-12
  • JoshuaZ said “Context is bet with B. Siemers. He predicts 70% percent chance in other direction. Bet stakes: loser must work acknowledge of loss of bet into a professional talk. on 2017-06-12
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2017-06-12
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2017-06-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 75% and said “Updating confidence based on apparent success of both SpaceX and Boeing. on 2018-08-03
  • JoshuaZ said “78on 2020-05-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 78% and said “Updating based on imminent launch of crewed Dragon. If crewed Dragon is successful, will further update to 82.on 2020-05-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 82% and said “Based on apparent success of crewed dragon. on 2020-06-06
  • Baeboo estimated 79% on 2020-06-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 80% on 2020-10-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 91% and said “Bob Hines now designated for Dragon 4. on 2021-02-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 92% and said “Based on Hines continuing to be on the mission and everything on target for the mission. on 2021-06-14
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2021-11-17.
  • JoshuaZ said “Raja Chari is on the just launched Dragon 3. on 2021-11-17

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