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We will never have a colony on mars larger than 25 people without launch costs going below $250/kg

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-21; known on 2100-06-01

  • Tuxedage estimated 85% on 2013-05-21
  • JoshuaZ said “Does this prediction mean “Before 2100-06-01 we will either have average launch costs below $250/kg or will not have any Mars colony larger than 25 people?”” on 2013-05-23