German Minister of Defence will resign before the election

Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.

• dhoe estimated 50% on 2013-05-22
• dhoe said “It seems unlikely, but Merkel just expressed her full confidence. Experience teaches this implies he’s as good as gone” on 2013-05-22
• ctp estimated 50% and said “When considering only first expressions of full or fullest confidence in ministers in Merkel’s second term, excluding de Maiziére, 57% (4 out of 7) of “victims” resigned after an average of 49 days, ranging from 2 to 117.” on 2013-05-23
• ctp said “Incidentally, Merkel also expressed her full confidence in Pope Benedict XVI. Imagine the good she could do in the world if her full confidence actually worked causally towards resignation!” on 2013-05-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2013-05-23
• RandomThinker estimated 55% and said “Merkel throws people under the bus.” on 2013-05-24
• phreeza estimated 15% and said “He seems to be out of the woods.” on 2013-07-04
• phreeza   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-09-23.