There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
- michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com estimated 40% on 2017-07-25
- ioannes said “How are you defining “attempted assassination”? Would uncovering a plot that wasn’t executed qualify?” on 2017-07-25
- michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com said “Excellent point. I’d say that qualifies.” on 2017-07-25
- ioannes said “Probably worth editing the prediction to be more precise. ” on 2017-07-25
- michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-20” and changed their prediction from “There will be an attempted assassination of Donald Trump before his term ends.” on 2017-07-26
- michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-20” on 2017-07-26
- two2thehead estimated 60% and said “Duplicating my prediction from: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/180203” on 2017-07-26
- ioannes estimated 43% and said “Now that’s a prediction I can predict on!” on 2017-07-26
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 15% on 2017-07-28
- shinshin75 judged this prediction wrong on 2017-07-31.
- two2thehead judged this prediction unknown on 2017-08-03.
- Baeboo estimated 68% on 2017-08-08
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2017-08-23
- Baeboo estimated 58% on 2017-09-25
- Baeboo estimated 50% on 2017-10-03
- Deepak said “https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/us/politics/ricin-trump.htmlI think this is already true ” on 2020-11-11
- Baeboo judged this prediction right on 2020-11-12.