Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.

• gurgus estimated 80% on 2017-08-09
• gurgus said “Personally, I hope I’m wrong, but the fact that both sides are allowed to spread whatever information they want about the issue, I believe that it will go the way of Brexit and toxic campaigning will win.” on 2017-08-09
• gurgus changed the deadline from “on 2017-11-25” and changed their prediction from “The majority of the Australian public will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote” on 2017-08-09
• sjy estimated 50% and said “Polls have shown over 60% support for same sex marriage fairly consistently for the past five years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Australia#Polling.” on 2017-08-09
• sjy said “I expect that more people will oppose SSM in a voluntary postal vote than in a poll, because people with anti-SSM views are more likely to participate in a postal vote, but I am not confident that they will carry a majority.” on 2017-08-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-08-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2017-08-10
• gurgus changed the deadline from “on 2017-11-25” and changed their prediction from “The majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote” on 2017-08-16
• penten estimated 45% on 2017-08-16
• sjy estimated 25% and said “Revising my prediction in light of the overwhelmingly pro-SSM media coverage and increase in enrolments: http://abc.net.au/news/2017-08-25/same-sex-marriage-90,000-people-added-to-electoral-role/8842670” on 2017-09-10
• two2thehead estimated 25% on 2017-09-10
• jbeshir estimated 20% on 2017-10-21
• sjy   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-11-14.