Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known 20 days ago; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.

  • gurgus estimated 80% on 2017-08-09
  • gurgus said “Personally, I hope I’m wrong, but the fact that both sides are allowed to spread whatever information they want about the issue, I believe that it will go the way of Brexit and toxic campaigning will win.on 2017-08-09
  • gurgus changed the deadline from “21 days ago” and changed their prediction from “The majority of the Australian public will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote” on 2017-08-09
  • sjy estimated 50% and said “Polls have shown over 60% support for same sex marriage fairly consistently for the past five years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Australia#Polling.on 2017-08-09
  • sjy said “I expect that more people will oppose SSM in a voluntary postal vote than in a poll, because people with anti-SSM views are more likely to participate in a postal vote, but I am not confident that they will carry a majority.on 2017-08-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-08-09
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2017-08-10
  • gurgus changed the deadline from “20 days ago” and changed their prediction from “The majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote” on 2017-08-16
  • penten estimated 45% on 2017-08-16
  • sjy estimated 25% and said “Revising my prediction in light of the overwhelmingly pro-SSM media coverage and increase in enrolments: http://abc.net.au/news/2017-08-25/same-sex-marriage-90,000-people-added-to-electoral-role/8842670on 2017-09-10
  • two2thehead estimated 25% on 2017-09-10
  • jbeshir estimated 20% on 2017-10-21
  • sjy  judged this prediction wrong on 2017-11-14.

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