Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first.

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-16; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-12-16.

• peter_hurford estimated 70% on 2017-08-16
• peter_hurford changed the deadline from “on 2017-12-16” and changed their prediction from “Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0” on 2017-08-16
• ea247 estimated 75% on 2017-08-16
• Pablo estimated 70% on 2017-08-21
• peter_hurford said “I didn’t painstakingly verify this by counting each article, but a cursory glance and investigation of a few articles shows that this prediction is pretty likely wrong, so I have resolved it accordingly.” on 2017-12-16
• peter_hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-12-16.