[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less)

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.

• OpenPhilUnofficial estimated 7% on 2017-08-30
• Pablo estimated 15% on 2017-08-30
• peter_hurford estimated 30% on 2017-08-31
• themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2017-08-31
• Michael Dickens estimated 20% and said “Historical growth suggests that this is pretty likely to happen (maybe 30-40%), but OpenPhil may know about some plan to drive pledges that I don’t know about (such as more aggressive marketing) so I’ll move toward OP’s estimate.” on 2017-10-28
• peter_hurford said “Per https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/about-us/members/ there were 3334 GWWC members on 1 Jan 2018. This resolves positively.” on 2020-01-26
• peter_hurford   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-26.