The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-01-01

• OpenPhilUnofficial estimated 50% on 2017-08-30
• OpenPhilUnofficial said “from http://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts” on 2017-08-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-08-31