news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 12% on 2017-09-19
• PseudonymousUser said “no new stories / archival mode = shut down” on 2017-09-19
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-09-21
• Michael Dickens estimated 12% and said “bobpage has the best Brier score of any of the ~10 people I randomly sampled so I’m gonna stick with him on this one” on 2017-09-29
• aoeu estimated 5% and said “http://www.paulgraham.com/hundred.html” on 2017-09-29
• aoeu estimated 1% and said “Around 10 hours of downtime in total in the last 4 years.https://web.archive.org/web/20170515000000” on 2017-09-29
• sdr estimated 5% on 2017-10-02
• Baeboo estimated 8% on 2017-12-14
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.

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