The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit.

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.

• Athrithalix estimated 70% on 2017-10-03
• regex estimated 40% on 2017-10-28
• Flenser estimated 40% on 2017-11-08
• futurulus estimated 60% on 2017-11-15
• timmartin estimated 40% on 2017-11-22
• objclone estimated 40% on 2017-11-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Deadline should probably be pushed up to around January 10th or so. ” on 2017-11-28
• Athrithalix changed the deadline from “on 2017-11-30” on 2017-12-12
• enolan estimated 35% on 2018-02-02
• enolan   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-02-06.
• JoshuaZ said “Should this be marked as correct? We still have a 6 hour second stage coast before the final burn? ” on 2018-02-06
• JoshuaZ said “Oops, I mean “should this be marked as wrong”? It might still happen. ” on 2018-02-06