The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit.

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.

  • Athrithalix estimated 70% on 2017-10-03
  • regex estimated 40% on 2017-10-28
  • Flenser estimated 40% on 2017-11-08
  • futurulus estimated 60% on 2017-11-15
  • timmartin estimated 40% on 2017-11-22
  • objclone estimated 40% on 2017-11-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Deadline should probably be pushed up to around January 10th or so. on 2017-11-28
  • Athrithalix changed the deadline from “on 2017-11-30on 2017-12-12
  • enolan estimated 35% on 2018-02-02
  • enolan  judged this prediction wrong on 2018-02-06.
  • JoshuaZ said “Should this be marked as correct? We still have a 6 hour second stage coast before the final burn? on 2018-02-06
  • JoshuaZ said “Oops, I mean “should this be marked as wrong”? It might still happen. on 2018-02-06

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction