Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.

Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-05; known on 2067-10-05

  • two2thehead estimated 51% on 2017-10-05
  • two2thehead said “The study that tangentially inspired my thought process vis-a-vis probability of having aspergers (or any other neurological disorder) versus the general population. 2017-10-05
  • two2thehead said “I’m assuming that sequencing will become fast and cheap enough to have publicly available statistics that measure the median frequency of mental disorders as well as the genetic correlates there ofon 2017-10-05
  • two2thehead said “Assume that the genetic equivalent of The Streisand effect holds true in the future, along with fast sequencing that anyone can do or have access to, and it becomes trivialon 2017-10-05
  • two2thehead said “This prediction is inspired by: The severed head of eccentric philosopher Jeremy Bentham is to go on display for the first time in decades and scientists are using the opportunity to test his DNA to find out if he was autistic.on 2017-10-05
  • two2thehead said “Source: 2017-10-05
  • two2thehead said “Thank you to gwern for suggesting this prediction.on 2017-10-05
  • themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-10-05
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% on 2017-10-08
  • holycow81 estimated 55% on 2017-10-11

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