The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-20.

  • peter_hurford estimated 30% on 2017-10-12
  • skinnersboxy estimated 25% on 2017-12-21
  • ccokeefe estimated 33% on 2017-12-21
  • ccokeefe said “still not publicly announced afaikon 2017-12-31
  • peter_hurford said “The person has been hired but their identity is still not publicly known.on 2018-02-05
  • peter_hurford said “It looks like they were hired 1-3 weeks agoon 2018-02-05
  • peter_hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-02-20.
  • peter_hurford said “Privately known information confirms this prediction was wrongon 2018-02-20

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