The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-20.
- peter_hurford estimated 30% on 2017-10-12
- skinnersboxy estimated 25% on 2017-12-21
- ccokeefe estimated 33% on 2017-12-21
- ccokeefe said “still not publicly announced afaik” on 2017-12-31
- peter_hurford said “The person has been hired but their identity is still not publicly known.” on 2018-02-05
- peter_hurford said “It looks like they were hired 1-3 weeks ago” on 2018-02-05
- peter_hurford judged this prediction wrong on 2018-02-20.
- peter_hurford said “Privately known information confirms this prediction was wrong” on 2018-02-20
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