The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-20.

• peter_hurford estimated 30% on 2017-10-12
• skinnersboxy estimated 25% on 2017-12-21
• ccokeefe estimated 33% on 2017-12-21
• ccokeefe said “still not publicly announced afaik” on 2017-12-31
• peter_hurford said “The person has been hired but their identity is still not publicly known.” on 2018-02-05
• peter_hurford said “It looks like they were hired 1-3 weeks ago” on 2018-02-05
• peter_hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-02-20.
• peter_hurford said “Privately known information confirms this prediction was wrong” on 2018-02-20