Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

• themusicgod1 estimated 35% on 2017-10-12
• iCrown estimated 20% on 2017-10-12
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2017-10-13
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2017-10-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “it’s 2017 but I feel this one is safe at 0% because lawyers write EOs, not Trump himself” on 2017-10-13
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2017-10-14
• Medea estimated 5% on 2017-10-15
• Pablo estimated 1% on 2017-10-17
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2017-10-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2017-10-19
• tedks estimated 0% on 2017-10-20
• tedks said “Thank you for the free 100% confidence prediction! ” on 2017-10-20
• aseyfarth estimated 0% on 2017-10-26
• Michael Dickens estimated 1% on 2017-10-28
• Flenser estimated 0% on 2017-11-08
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2017-11-12
• moyamo estimated 0% on 2018-06-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2019-02-25
• PseudonymousUser said “When Trump needs some adoration, he goes golfing with Lindsey Graham” on 2019-02-25
• Cato estimated 0% on 2019-02-27
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-05-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2020-06-12
• jamesrom estimated 0% and said “you’d have to be fairly deranged to give this a non-zero prediction” on 2020-07-07
• sty.silver said “That depends. I think there are reasonable scoring schemes where one wrong prediction with 0 or 100 percent would give you a calibration of -infty. In that case, you would prefer 1%.” on 2020-07-07
• NickN estimated 1% on 2020-08-16
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-22.