I will write and post a text explaining how humans' everyday decisions and reasoning are actually probability theory (with flaws) and vnm rationality (again, with flaws)

Created by crabman on 2017-10-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-06-01.

• crabman estimated 4% on 2017-10-26
• crabman   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-06-01.