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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Lula da Silva in the first round or have him advance to the runoff

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.

  • Bruno Parga estimated 65% on 2017-10-30
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 35% on 2017-10-30
  • Bruno Parga said “This is conditional on him not being disqualified from running due to a criminal conviction.” on 2017-11-23
  • uriel.fiori estimated 70% on 2017-11-24
  • Bruno Parga said “I hadn’t honestly thought of the possibility of him being disqualified when I created the prediction, so I’ll just mark this as wrong (instead of withdrawing it)” on 2018-09-18
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-09-18.
  • Laudano said “HAHAHAHAHA!” on 2018-10-18