Cmydd gsvv gbsdo k lvyqzycd drkd bopoboxmoc wkdobskv lbyeqrd ez sx wi zycd lopybo dro oxn yp dro iokb

Created by bendini on 2017-11-06; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.

• bendini estimated 60% on 2017-11-06
• Michael Dickens estimated 35% and said “If you want your prediction to be a secret, you shouldn’t use a substitution cipher, and if you want it to be public but unreadable, you should use rot13.” on 2017-11-09
• bendini said “it is meant to be a trivial inconvenience, why would rot13 be better?” on 2017-11-20
• bendini estimated 10% and said “causal chain has been broken, pretty unlikely now” on 2017-12-06
• bendini   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-12-27.
• bendini said “http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/07/05/the-craft-and-the-codex better late than never” on 2018-09-18