Ethereum hard fork will happen because of https://paritytech.io/blog/security-alert.html

Created by crabman on 2017-11-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.

• crabman estimated 40% on 2017-11-07
• crabman said “If they were planning to do hard fork anyway and just throw in the parity multisig fix, then it doesn’t count” on 2017-11-07
• Connor Flexman estimated 35% on 2017-11-08
• Tenobrus estimated 30% on 2017-11-09
• jbeshir estimated 20% on 2017-11-10
• jbeshir said “https://themerkle.com/parity-will-not-pursue-hard-fork-to-unfreeze-500000-ether/” on 2018-01-03
• jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-03.