[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Coup succeeds; Mugabe either remains de jure president but under house arrest, or agrees to gracefully leave. Generals install a new de facto ruler ─ probably but not necessarily Mnangagwa

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.

• Bruno Parga estimated 25% on 2017-11-16
• Bruno Parga changed the deadline from “on 2017-12-16” and changed their prediction from “Coup succeeds; Mugabe either remains de facto president but under house arrest, or agrees to gracefully leave. Generals install a new de facto ruler ─ probably but not necessarily Mnangagwa” on 2017-11-20
• Bruno Parga estimated 50% on 2017-11-20
• Bruno Parga estimated 97% on 2017-11-24
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2017-12-12.