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Facebook will match 100% of my donations made between the hours of 8:00 AM EST and 8:10 AM EST on #GivingTuesday

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-01.

  • WilliamKiely estimated 30% on 2017-11-24
  • WilliamKiely said “Details: Facebook will match 100% of my donations made to nonprofits on Facebook between 8:00 AM EST and 8:10 AM EST on 11/28/2017 assuming the $50,000 per non-profit limit and the $1,000 per fundraising campaign limit have not already been reached.” on 2017-11-24
  • WilliamKiely said “In the unlikely chance that I don’t donate (<10%), this will still resolve yes if I see that others who donated early reliably had their donations matched.” on 2017-11-24
  • WilliamKiely estimated 90% on 2017-11-24
  • WilliamKiely said ““Each nonprofit can get up to a $50K match and each fundraiser or donate button can get up to a $1K match, as long as matching funds are available.” https://www.networkforgood.com/facebook/” on 2017-11-24
  • WilliamKiely said ““Donations to nonprofits made through Facebook’s charitable giving tools on November 28th will be matched up to $50,000 per nonprofit or $1,000 per fundraiser or donate button, until the $2 million in matching funds run out.”” on 2017-11-24
  • WilliamKiely said “^ https://donations.fb.com/givingtuesday/” on 2017-11-24
  • WilliamKiely estimated 80% on 2017-11-25
  • WilliamKiely said “https://www.facebook.com/donate/149883985639979/” on 2017-11-28
  • WilliamKiely said “https://www.facebook.com/donate/404780876616697/” on 2017-11-28
  • WilliamKiely said “https://www.facebook.com/donate/1796785090612713/” on 2017-11-28
  • WilliamKiely said “https://www.facebook.com/donate/2001830000061080/” on 2017-11-28
  • WilliamKiely said “Not that in my initial comment above I said “assuming the limit had not been reached.” My initial 30% skepticism included this qualification. However, my later updates did not include this qualification.” on 2017-12-01
  • WilliamKiely said “That is, I was also implicitly predicting at least 80-90% that the match would not run out by the time I made my donations assuming I made them within the first 10 mins.” on 2017-12-01
  • WilliamKiely said “The match ran out at 8:01:26 (+/- 1 second). I donated $4,000 with my last donation going through at 8:01:17 just 9 seconds before the match ran out.” on 2017-12-01
  • WilliamKiely said “While 100% of my donations were indeed matched, I think I was very overconfident to assign an 80-90% probability.” on 2017-12-01
  • WilliamKiely   judged this prediction right on 2017-12-01.