SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-12-12; known on 2022-01-16

• Athrithalix estimated 85% on 2017-12-12
• Athrithalix changed the deadline from “on 2022-01-16” and changed their prediction from “SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race.” on 2017-12-12
• Bruno Parga said “What happens if neither has put boots on Mars by 2022?” on 2017-12-12
• tjwalters@me.com estimated 74% on 2017-12-13
• Athrithalix said “If no boots by 2022, wait until boots. If never resolved, then… …never resolved?” on 2017-12-13
• missbethann estimated 76% on 2017-12-13
• PlacidPlatypus said “What if a third party beats them both? Wait until one of them does it too? What if they do it by buying a ticket from the third party?” on 2017-12-13
• Ben Doherty estimated 65% on 2017-12-16
• gallerdude estimated 70% on 2017-12-21
• aoeu estimated 87% on 2017-12-23
• wuliwong estimated 100% on 2017-12-28
• davidmanheim estimated 90% on 2018-01-03
• OrangeJuice estimated 80% on 2022-05-23