[German government formation, 2017:] A new election is called

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.

• Bruno Parga estimated 30% on 2017-12-14
• Rpitkani estimated 60% and said “SPD has said they’re not interested in a grand coalition again and being in one for so long seems to have hurt their ability to make a good case to rule in their own right. ” on 2017-12-16
• Bruno Parga estimated 10% and said “This will likely only happen if GroKo talks collapse, which both the Union and the SPD leadership have a strong interest in avoiding.” on 2018-01-23
• timmartin estimated 40% on 2018-02-04
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-03-15.