[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2021

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.

• Bruno Parga estimated 96% on 2017-12-23
• Bruno Parga estimated 5% on 2019-01-01
• Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2021-07-01
• Bruno Parga said “It was going down – Pakistan seems not to have had a case since January 27 – but the situation in Afghanistan is likely to deteriorate in the near future.” on 2021-12-31
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-12-31.