Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018

Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.

• ioannes estimated 20% on 2018-01-02
• ioannes changed the deadline from “on 2018-04-01” and changed their prediction from “Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/01/01/world/middleeast/ap-ml-iran-protests.html” on 2018-01-02
• ioannes said “https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/01/01/world/middleeast/ap-ml-iran-protests.html” on 2018-01-02
• imaxwell estimated 5% on 2018-01-02
• Bruno Parga estimated 5% on 2018-01-02
• davidmanheim estimated 5% on 2018-01-03
• ccokeefe estimated 8% on 2018-01-03
• atomicspaceman estimated 5% on 2018-01-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2018-01-10
• Medea estimated 5% on 2018-01-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2018-01-10
• TheBlackFox estimated 4% on 2018-01-14
• peter_hurford estimated 5% on 2018-01-15
• PseudonymousUser estimated 12% on 2018-01-15
• Athrithalix estimated 5% on 2018-01-17
• adrepd estimated 6% on 2018-01-25
• Jotto999 estimated 0% and said “Is there no way to set the allowable window of time to estimate an event to end much sooner than the known date? This one is known in 9 hours, yet I can cheat by estimating now, instead of back in January.” on 2018-04-01
• ioannes   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-04-02.
• ioannes said “@Jotto999 You’re not cheating, you’re just making a different prediction.” on 2018-04-02
• Jotto999 said “I see.” on 2018-04-02