Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018

Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.

  • ioannes estimated 20% on 2018-01-02
  • ioannes changed the deadline from “on 2018-04-01” and changed their prediction from “Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/01/01/world/middleeast/ap-ml-iran-protests.html” on 2018-01-02
  • ioannes said “https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/01/01/world/middleeast/ap-ml-iran-protests.htmlon 2018-01-02
  • imaxwell estimated 5% on 2018-01-02
  • Bruno Parga estimated 5% on 2018-01-02
  • davidmanheim estimated 5% on 2018-01-03
  • ccokeefe estimated 8% on 2018-01-03
  • atomicspaceman estimated 5% on 2018-01-05
  • pvoberstein estimated 15% on 2018-01-10
  • Medea estimated 5% on 2018-01-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2018-01-10
  • TheBlackFox estimated 4% on 2018-01-14
  • peter_hurford estimated 5% on 2018-01-15
  • pvoberstein estimated 12% on 2018-01-15
  • Athrithalix estimated 5% on 2018-01-17
  • adrepd estimated 6% on 2018-01-25
  • Jotto999 estimated 0% and said “Is there no way to set the allowable window of time to estimate an event to end much sooner than the known date? This one is known in 9 hours, yet I can cheat by estimating now, instead of back in January.on 2018-04-01
  • ioannes  judged this prediction wrong on 2018-04-02.
  • ioannes said “@Jotto999 You’re not cheating, you’re just making a different prediction.on 2018-04-02
  • Jotto999 said “I see.on 2018-04-02

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