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Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019.

Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.

  • dchristie estimated 63% on 2018-01-12
  • dchristie said “This includes if they were at one point the richest but then the bubble burst. It also doesn’t include the feasibility of them actually cashing out their Bitcoin.” on 2018-01-12
  • henryaj estimated 35% on 2018-01-12
  • peter_hurford estimated 20% and said “Right now, Bill Gates has a net worth of $88.3 billion. Satoshi Nakamoto is said to have 1M BTC, currently worth $13.778B at $13,778.10/BTC as judged by coinmarketcap.com.” on 2018-01-15
  • peter_hurford said “ Thus the price of bitcoin will have to increase by more than 6.4x within two years to catch up with Gates. This is certainly possible, given that growth last year was 15.4x, but I still think it unlikely.” on 2018-01-15
  • peter_hurford said “This is also not taking into account Gate’s net worth going down significantly (through more donations) or another person (e.g., Bezos)’s net worth going up dramatically.” on 2018-01-15
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 17% on 2018-01-15
  • ccokeefe estimated 40% on 2018-01-16
  • Athrithalix estimated 10% on 2018-01-17
  • crabman said “If Satoshi owns 20% of all bitcoins (let’s say it’s 1kk bitcoins), and the current price of 1 bitcoin is $10000 USD, then his net worth is much less than $10000 * 1kk, because if he started selling them, the price of bitcoin would drop dramatically.” on 2018-01-19
  • Bruno Parga said “If Satoshi owns 1M BTC, he owns 6% of the 16.8M BTC in existence, so the impact if he started selling would be significantly lower than if he held 20% of all the coins.” on 2018-01-21
  • ioannes said “Is there a source for how many bitcoins Satoshi owns? (Or a source for the 1M estimate?)” on 2018-01-22
  • Dapple estimated 2% on 2018-01-24
  • aoeu estimated 24% and said “the source for the 1 million estimate is https://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/” on 2018-02-17
  • JoshuaZ said “I take it this is only referring to wealth that Satoshi has from Bitcoin? We can’t exactly judge this if one is wondering that maybe he is Bill Gates. ” on 2018-02-19
  • aoeu estimated 5% on 2019-01-12
  • Cato said “Is this claim about his net worth or only his assets? We know nothing about Satoshi Nakamoto’s liabilities.” on 2019-03-07
  • dchristie   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.