North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.

• playablecharacter estimated 12% on 2018-01-19
• gallerdude estimated 5% on 2018-01-22
• JoshuaZ said “Define invade? Is a bombardment or missile launch without troops count as an invasion? ” on 2018-01-22
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% and said “I’m defining “invade” as at least 100 soldiers staying on South Korean territory for at least 48 hours.” on 2018-01-22
• ccokeefe estimated 5% on 2018-01-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 9% and said “Using PlacidPlatypus’s definition. ” on 2018-01-24
• Bacon1001 estimated 5% on 2018-01-25
• adrepd estimated 5% on 2018-01-25
• Medea estimated 5% on 2018-02-06
• avi estimated 5% on 2018-02-10
• pranomostro estimated 4% on 2018-09-02
• Baeboo estimated 4% on 2018-12-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2019-02-25
• NickN estimated 1% on 2020-08-16
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-11-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% and said “Most of the time has passed with no sign of this happening.” on 2020-11-20
• stepan estimated 0% on 2021-12-29
• playablecharacter   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-01.