I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030

Created by Bacon1001 26 days ago; known on 2030-01-01

  • Bacon1001 estimated 80% 26 days ago
  • krazemon estimated 40% and said “It’s not clear to me that anyone besides Musk will do this and it requires SpaceX continued success. Reframed as such, I’m skeptical that it’s more likely than not that SpaceX will get humans to Mars by 2030.26 days ago
  • Athrithalix estimated 40% 26 days ago
  • Michael Dickens estimated 20% and said “Been almost 50 years since moon landing. Doubtful that we will get to Mars in 12 more. Not much political will but we do have private actors (SpaceX) so Mars landing is more likely than it was a decade ago.23 days ago
  • iCrown estimated 20% 20 days ago
  • gallerdude estimated 50% 15 days ago

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