PredictionBook is now read-only (

I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030

Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01

  • Bacon1001 estimated 80% on 2018-01-25
  • krazemon estimated 40% and said “It’s not clear to me that anyone besides Musk will do this and it requires SpaceX continued success. Reframed as such, I’m skeptical that it’s more likely than not that SpaceX will get humans to Mars by 2030.on 2018-01-25
  • Athrithalix estimated 40% on 2018-01-25
  • Michael Dickens estimated 20% and said “Been almost 50 years since moon landing. Doubtful that we will get to Mars in 12 more. Not much political will but we do have private actors (SpaceX) so Mars landing is more likely than it was a decade ago.on 2018-01-27
  • iCrown estimated 20% on 2018-01-30
  • gallerdude estimated 50% on 2018-02-05
  • Matthew_Barnett estimated 45% on 2018-03-06
  • Medea estimated 25% on 2018-03-09